Freddie Freeman, the All-Star slugger for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has been raking it in lately, and there's no reason to believe he's slowing down anytime soon. The man's been on fire, particularly in his last 20 games where he's averaging 3.35 batting - total bases. Let's dig into the numbers that are driving my confidence in betting the over on Freeman's upcoming performance against the Oakland A's.
Freeman is a powerhouse at the plate, with an average of 2.35 total bases this season. In the last 20 games, Freeman's been in the zone, averaging 3.35 total bases. In the previous ten games, he's been holding steady, averaging 3.2; even in the last five games, he's still pulling in an average of 2.8. The man's on an upward trend; if you're a betting man or woman, that's a trend you don't want to ignore.
So why am I picking the over on Freeman's total bases where the line is 1.5? It's not just because of Freeman's recent sizzling performances, but also due to some less-than-stellar stats on the A's side. Enter J.P. Sears. Sears has a 5.19 FIP and his ground ball rate is just 27%. That's not great news for Sears, but it's music to the ears of anyone looking to bet the over on Freeman's total bases.
It's worth noting that in Freeman's previous two games against the A's, he averaged 5.0 total bases, which is more than triple the current line being considered. Additionally, J.P. Sears has allowed left-handed batters to hit .287 since 2021. Still, Freeman is not your typical lefty and has a better OPS against left-handed pitchers (1.080) than right-handed pitchers (.967) this season.
It's important to understand that sports betting always involves uncertainty. However, when a player like Freeman is on a hot streak, has season-long solid stats, and is facing a pitcher with a higher FIP and lower ground ball rate, it may be tempting to bet on the over.
My Selection: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)