Grade 1 Breeders Cup Sprint | Race 10 | 7:05 PM E | $2,000,000
Del Mar Dirt Sprint Track Trends
Early-speed horses and "pressers" are the clear champions of 6 furlongs or less in dirt sprints. During the 2023-24 season, these frontrunners—those who set the pace or were within four lengths of the lead at the ¾ pole—captured an impressive 92% of dirt sprint victories. In contrast, "sustained" runners, commonly known as closers, have faced challenges, winning only 9% of these races.
This trend has been consistent for quite some time. Horses in the lead as they round the turn for home tend to have a better chance of winning at Del Mar than any other racetrack on the West Coast. The seaside location of Del Mar is ideal for horses with experience there. Horses that have not raced "Where the Turf Meets the Surf" often find it challenging. Del Mar has one of the shortest stretch runs in North America.
#1 Raging Torrent (10/1), trained by Doug O’Neill & ridden by Antonio Fresu
This 3-year-old colt by Maximus Mischief has a lifetime record of 10-4-1-2, earning $467,400. He has won three straight races, including the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes at Del Mar on August 24, posting a career-best 125 Equibase speed figure. He has never won going 6 furlongs (1-0-0-1); however, this horse can certainly cross the finish line in first. His 5-furlong bullet work (1/71) on October 19 in .59 seconds shows his speedy pedigree. The inside post is not ideal, but he does have enough early speed to overcome that. Fresu is very familiar with Raging Torrent, having been aboard for nine of his ten races. Live Longshot!
#2 Gun Pilot (20/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Cristian Torres
Gun Pilot is the son of Gun Runner and should not be taken lightly. His lifetime record is 13-5-4-1, and he earned $1,117,580. He finished second to Mullikin in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes on August 24 at Saratoga. Two starts back, he won the Grade 1 Churchill Down Stakes. His speed figures have leveled off, and he has never won a graded stakes event at this distance, even though his record going 6 furlongs is 3-2-1. His “sustained” running style doesn’t fit Del Mar’s track trends in dirt sprints. (see above). Toss!
#3 Federal Judge (3/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.
This 4-year gelding by Army Mule has a lifetime record of 6-4-1-0, earning $402,960. This will be his first start at any track West of Kentucky. He broke his maiden at first asking, going 6 furlongs in August of 2023 at Oaklawn Park. In his last start, he defeated Nakatomi by 5 ½ lengths in the Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Stakes at Keeneland on October 4. He has improved speed figures in his first six races, from a 90 to a 110 in that Grade 2 win. Federal Judge is 2-for-2 going 6 furlongs and figures to be in the mix when they turn for home. The Brad Cox barn is on fire, with a 35% win rate over the past 30 days. Win Contender!
#4 Nakatomi (6/1), trained by Wesley Ward & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione
I always think of the movie “Die Hard” when seeing or hearing his name. He’s a 5-year-old gelding by Firing Line with a lifetime record of 19-6-3-6, earning a robust $1,222,030. He won the Grade 1 Alfred G. Handicap at Saratoga on July 27 and followed up with a disappointing second-place finish, beaten 5 1/2 lengths as the 6/5 chalk by Federal Judge last time out. Declining speed and class figures in his previous three races are a concern. Although trainer Wesley Ward cashes 50% when his horses run the second race after a 2-6 month layoff, his running style is not conducive at Del Mar in sprint races. Toss!
#5 Don Frankie | JPN | (15/1), trained by Takashi & ridden by Cristian Demuro
His lifetime record jumps off the page with a 17-8-4-0 earning $1,774,460. I don’t know much about him, but he loves a wet track. Five of his eight career wins have been on a muddy or sloppy track. There is a 60% chance of light rain at Del Mar on Saturday. Only one horse from Japan (Agnes World in 2000) has won the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Sprint in the last 23 years. Toss!
#6 Bentornato (30/1), trained by Francisco D’Angelo & ridden by Luis Saez
His lifetime record is 8-5-1-2, earning $791,830. He won the Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes by a neck over Sunny Breeze, going 6 furlongs at Parx on September 21. His speed and class figures are far below the rest of the field. Has never raced in any other time zone besides Eastern and Saudi Arabia. Do note that Irad Ortiz Jr. has chosen to ride Federal Judge, although this horse has never lost (3-for-3) going 6 furlongs on the dirt. Bentornato’s competition has been less than stellar in his career. Toss!
#7 Meta Max (20/1), trained by Hideuki Mori & ridden by Akira Sugawara
Another Japan invader with a lifetime record of 14-5-1-3 earning $632,588. He has been the post-time favorite in just two of his past 12 races, winning one of those in August last year. He did have a work over the Del Mar track on October 27, which was reported as slow by the clockers (32/32). Maybe it was by design, but I can’t get behind this horse or any runner from Japan in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Toss!
#8 Straight No Chaser (5/1), trained by Dan Blacker & ridden by John Velazquez
This 5-year-old by Speightster has a lifetime record 9-5-0-1, earning $376,300. He won the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship by 6 ¼ lengths on September 29, posting a career-best 119 Equibase speed figure. Three starts back, he won the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Stakes at Pimlico on May 20, 2023, before stumbling badly at the gate to finish fourth in the Grade 3 Run Happy Stakes on May 11, 2024. He’s 3-for-4 with Hall of Fame Jockey Johnny V aboard, and the one loss was that stumble after the start. The clocker reports have been highly positive, and he’s the speed of the speed. Del Mar has one of the shortest stretch runs of any track, which fits his running style. Remember, Straight No Chaser won his first career start on the Del Mar turf course in July of 2022. Has been the post-time favorite in seven of his nine starts. Win Contender!
#9 Remake | JPN | (8/1), trained by Koichi Shinrani & ridden by Yuga Kwada
This is the only Japanese horse with a chance to finish in the top three. He has earned $3,584,310 with nine wins, three second-place finishes, and two third-place finishes out of 18 career starts. However, winning against some of these North American contenders in this high-profile race will be a difficult challenge. Use Underneath!
#10 Mullikin (7/2), trained by Rodolphe Brisset & ridden by Flavien Prat
This 4-year-old colt by Violence has a lifetime record of 9-5-3-0, earning $673,612. Mullikin is in career-best form, having won his last four starts impressively, albeit at 7 furlongs. His most recent victory in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes saw him lead from start to finish, defeating a quality field that includes Gun Pilot by 5 ¾ lengths. He has been the post-time chalk in six of his nine starts, although he’s never had a post position further out than the five-hole. That is a bit of a concern, considering there is plenty of speed to his inside, and he’s shipping in from the East Coast. Mullikin has only won once, going 6 furlongs, but the way he looked in his last win, there is the belief that the cutback won’t hurt his chances. Flavien Prat is quite familiar with the racetracks in Southern California. Win Contender!
#11 Skelly (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Ricky Santana
Skelly is by Practical Joke, and there's nothing to joke about regarding his credentials. His lifetime record is 18-10-7-0, earning $1,757,160. He scored his maiden win in his second lifetime start as a 3-year-old at Churchill Downs on October 2, 2022. Skelly's career highlights include multiple stakes victories, notably winning the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at Oaklawn Park in 2023 and successfully defending his title in 2024. Skelly has consistently improved, stringing together six consecutive wins in 2023 and continuing his success into his 5-year-old season. His achievements include international competition, finishing second in the Group 3 Sports Boulevard Riyadh Dirt Sprint Stakes in Saudi Arabia. He's been first or second in twelve consecutive races and has the second-best class and speed ratings. He has never won when his post position was seven or higher. Win Contender!
Jeff’s Breeders Cup Sprint Best Bet: #8 Straight No Chaser (5/1) to Win, Place, and Show
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