Grade 1 Belmont Stakes | Saratoga | Race 13 | June 7


1. Hill Road (10/1) Irad Ortiz Jr. / Chad Brown


This three-year-old colt by Quality Road won the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes on May 10, earning a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure. He will need to improve his speed figures by 8 to 10 points with less than one month of rest to win this type of race. Hill Road posted a speed figure of 98 as a two-year-old in finishing third in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile, which suggests this horse has a lot of talent. He will be running down the stretch late, so if there's a pace meltdown, Hill Road figures to benefit. I'm using him underneath.


2. Sovereignty (2/1) Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado


Sovereignty is the second choice heading into the Belmont Stakes, following a decisive win in the Kentucky Derby, where he defeated Journalism by 1½ lengths. His team opted to skip the Preakness Stakes to keep him fresh for the Triple Crown's final leg. Leading up to the Derby, Sovereignty showed consistent performance with victories in both the (G3) Street Sense Stakes and the (G2) Fountain of Youth Stakes. This talented colt by Into Mischief has career earnings of over 3.6 million, the highest in the field. While his top speed figure came on a sloppy track and other figures are less impressive, he remains a strong contender to win and a must-use in exotics.


3. Rodriguez (6/1) Bob Baffert / Mike Smith


Rodriguez is very intriguing in this spot. The Bob Baffert-trained horse makes his Triple Crown debut after being scratched from the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes due to a minor injury. Rodriguez won the (G2) Wood Memorial in early April, posting a career-high 111 Equibase Speed Figure. The extended layoff could work in his favor, as he enters completely fresh without the wear and tear of the previous two Triple Crown races. Rodriguez has two wins, two Places, and one Show in five career starts. He is expected to be at the front with a clean start and should be included in all exotic bets.


4. Uncaged (30/1) Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez


Uncaged finished sixth in the (G3) Peter Pan Stakes and is one of two entrants trained by Todd Pletcher. Although his pedigree suggests he has the potential for stamina, his recent performance in the Peter Pan was not impressive. He broke his maiden on his first attempt at Saratoga last August on a muddy track. The Curlin-bred horse has the lowest class and slowest speed rating in the field. It would be surprising if he won, but his connections must be respected. If the track is wet, his chances slightly increase, as both of his career victories were on off-track surfaces.


5. Crudo (15/1) Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez


Crudo won the Sir Barton Stakes by 7 ½ lengths at Pimlico on May 17. Two starts back, he broke his maiden by 7 ¼ lengths at Keeneland, going 7 furlongs. Crudo is a front-running horse that could apply pace pressure to the race and will attempt to win in a gate-to-wire manner. The son of Justify has the pedigree to handle the distance and could become a major contender this fall. However, this is a classic "bounce" scenario. This will be his third race in seven weeks for a horse making his fourth career start. Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes four times, and his horses can't be dismissed entirely.


6. Baeza (4/1) John Shirreffs / Flavien Prat


Baeza enters the Belmont Stakes with strong credentials despite not having won any graded stakes. He finished third in the Kentucky Derby, behind Sovereignty and Journalism. Two starts back, Baeza finished second, just three-quarters of a length behind Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Baeza benefits from skipping the Preakness, is poised for a new top-speed figure, and has the advantage of consistent performances, having finished in the money in all four career starts on dirt. Notably, eight of the last 11 Belmont winners did not run in the Preakness. This is Baeza's third race of his form cycle, and he produced a jaw-dropping maiden win in his third career start. My Top Choice.


7. Journalism (8/5) Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli


Journalism is the deserving favorite with his impressive record of five wins, one Place, and one Show in seven career starts, earning over 2.8 million. He finished second in the Kentucky Derby and went on to win the Preakness Stakes by half a length after a short two-week break. His previous victories, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and two additional Grade 2 events, established him as the one to beat. Journalism has tactical speed, staying within 4 1/2 lengths of the lead in five of seven starts. He is in excellent form with a strong chance of winning, but I want to bet against him at short odds


8. Heart of Honor (30/1) Jamie Osborne / Saffie Osborne


Heart of Honor brings international intrigue to the Belmont Stakes field under the guidance of British trainer Jamie Osborne and jockey Saffie Osborne. The Japanese invader placed second in all three legs of the UAE Triple Crown. Heart of Honor is a longshot with experience in route races but recently finished fifth in the Preakness after a slow start and a wide trip. This horse performs best at distances of no more than 1 mile.


Jeff’s Selection:


#6 Baeza to Win & Place


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