Grade 1 Alabama Stakes | August 17th | Race 10 | 5:43 PM E


#1 Intricate (6/1), trained by Brendan Walsh & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione


This 3-year-old filly by Gun Runner has a lifetime record of two wins, two second-place finishes, and one third-place finish in seven career starts, earning $465,180. Intricate is notable for being the only filly to have defeated the formidable Thorpedo Anna by winning the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes last year. Thorpedo Anna will compete against male horses in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. Despite an early success, she has struggled to maintain her form, losing four consecutive races since. Her recent third-place finish in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga suggests she needs to improve significantly to contend here, especially given the strong field she faces. Thorpedo Anna got revenge, winning by 8 ½ lengths as Intricate went off at nearly 11/1 odds. Use Underneath!


#2 Chatalas (8/1), trained by Mark Glatt & ridden by Frankie Dettori


This 3-year-old filly will be shipped in from California. She is a 3-year-old sired by Gun Runner and has already proven her worth with a career record of three wins, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish from seven starts, earning $370,000. Her recent victory in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks demonstrates her ability to win from the front. As a daughter of Gun Runner, her pedigree suggests she has the stamina and class required to win a race of the Alabama Stakes' caliber. Chatalas has never raced at Saratoga and has just one recorded work on this track, but her past successes speak volumes about her abilities. Live Long Shot!


#3 Power Squeeze (9/2), trained by Jorge Delgado & ridden by Javier Castellano


This 3-year-old filly by Union Rags has a career record of 9-5-1-1, earning $567,540. Power Squeeze has shown resilience and consistency, notably with a win in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks on July 8th. However, her speed figure was slow, which raises significant concerns. Although Power Squeeze finished third in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes, her ability to compete at longer distances is unproven, which might work against her in the Alabama Stakes. Castellano's experience, having won this race multiple times, adds to her appeal as a strong contender. Her past performances show she runs well in listed, Grade 2, or Grade 3 races but has been overmatched in Grade 1 events. I dislike her positioning here, as her speed and class ratings are considerably lower compared to the rest of the field. Toss!


#4 Just Basking (5/1), trained by Ian Wilkes & ridden by Chris Landeros


Just Basking, sired by Arrogate, has a record of 5-2-2-0 and has earned $239,506. She recently won the Iowa Oaks Stakes (listed) at Prairie Meadows on July 6th and is now stepping up in class. Despite lacking Grade 1 experience, she has previously demonstrated her ability to handle the Alabama distance by winning at Churchill Downs, breaking her maiden by 7 ¾ lengths as the even-money favorite. Just Basking's late-running style could be advantageous if there is a pace meltdown, as she owns the second-fastest late-pace speed figure (106). Although she has never run at Saratoga, her promising performance as an outsider makes her an intriguing prospect. Just Basking's last work was published on August 4th, which is a bit concerning. Use Underneath!


#5 America’s Vow (20/1), trained by Timothy Hamm & ridden by Junior Alvarado


This 3-year-old filly by Constitution has a career record of 10-2-0-2, earning $112,544. America’s Vow comes into the race off a local allowance win at 35/1 on July 28th. However, she has struggled against tougher competition, notably well-beaten (36 lengths) by Power Squeeze in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks on March 30th. Her speed and class ratings are significantly below the rest of the field. Considering the significant step up in class, she is viewed as a long shot in this field. A bounce off her career-high 90 Equibase speed figures seems likely. Toss!


#6 Miss Justify (6/1), trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Flavien Prat


One of two entries from the Todd Pletcher barn, she has a career record of 5-3-0-1, earning $192,010. Miss Justify is sired by Justify (obviously) and is coming off a victory in the Wilton Stakes (listed) at Saratoga on July 12th. She faces a more challenging test in terms of distance, as the Alabama Stakes will be the longest race of her career. As a daughter of Justify, I believe the added distance should not be a problem. Pletcher's expertise and Prat's skill make her a dangerous threat at a square price. She owns this field's fastest late-pace speed figure (108) and has increased her speed ratings in three straight races. Win Contender!


#7 Candied (7/5), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by Manny Franco


The more highly regarded of Pletcher's entries is sired by Candy Ride, with a career record of 6-3-1-1, earning $784,675. She is coming off a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga on July 12th, losing to Thorpeda Anna by 4 ½ lengths. Her experience at Saratoga (2-1-1-0) and previous Grade 1 success make her a logical choice. She owns this bunch's highest class rating (95) and fastest speed rating (95). I will look elsewhere despite her impressive credentials. The One to Beat!


#8 Neon Icon (15/1), trained by George Arnold ll & ridden by Luis Saez


Neon Icon is the least experienced in the field, with two wins from just three career starts, earning $140,127. She disappointed in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks on July 6th but has shown potential with a previous win at this distance, albeit on a wet track at Churchill Downs two starts back. Her pedigree, by Arrogate, suggests she could improve with experience, but she remains a wildcard in this competitive field. Luis Saez could have ridden America’s Vow but opted for this horse. Has zero starts and zero workouts at Saratoga which is not ideal. However, she is 2-for-2 with Luis Saez aboard. I think she will take some money in this spot, and her off odds could be 10/1 or lower. Live Long Shot!


Jeff’s Selection: #6 Miss Justify (6/1) to Win and Place


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