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Home / Articles / Jeff's 2024-25 NFL Season Win Total Under Best Bet


Jeff's 2024-25 NFL Season Win Total Under Best Bet

By: Jeff Hochman     Date: May 14, 2024
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Assessing the Dallas Cowboys’ Chances of Staying Under 10.5 Wins Amidst Challenges


The Dallas Cowboys, one of the NFL's most storied franchises, are facing a crucial season as they deal with a series of challenges that could affect their performance. Sportsbooks have set the over/under for the Cowboys' wins at 10.5, generating significant interest in whether the team will surpass this benchmark. However, with -120 odds on the under, oddsmakers doubt the Cowboys' ability to exceed this total. This article will explore the factors that could lead to the Cowboys achieving under 10.5 wins, including their first-place schedule, coaching changes, off-season moves, and injury concerns.


First-Place Schedule and Strength of Opposition


The Cowboys' first-place schedule ranks 12th in difficulty, which means they will face many formidable opponents throughout the season. Playing against top-tier teams can be a double-edged sword; it provides opportunities for statement wins and increases the likelihood of losses. The strength of the schedule could be a significant factor, especially in tightly contested games where the Cowboys' resilience and depth will be tested.


Departure of Dan Quinn


The departure of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who has played a vital role in shaping the Cowboys' defense into a strong unit, could have a significant impact. Quinn's defensive strategies and game management have been crucial, and his absence may lead to a period of adjustment for the defense. The new coordinator, Mike Zimmer, will have big shoes to fill, and any initial challenges could harm the team's overall performance, especially in the season's early stages.


Potential Coaching Turmoil


Speculation about the potential firing of head coach Mike McCarthy after this season adds an element of uncertainty to the team's prospects. Coaching stability is often an essential ingredient for success in the NFL, and rumors about McCarthy's job security could be a distraction, affecting the team's focus and performance on the field.


Offensive Moves—or the Lack Thereof


The Cowboys have not made significant moves to improve their offensive lineup. Bringing back Ezekiel Elliott will not help. His average yards per rush and longest run from scrimmage have decreased for three straight seasons. While continuity can be beneficial, it also means the team relies on the same personnel to maintain or improve its performance. Without fresh talent or strategic additions, the offense may struggle to evolve, making it easier for opponents to game-plan against them.


Injury Regression


Another factor to consider is the potential for negative injury regression. The Cowboys were one of the healthiest teams on offense last season, but this tends to go sideways in the following season.


Jeff’s Selection: Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 wins (-120)


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