Del Mar, Saturday, November 6th, 2021.
Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes
Race:2 (10:50 AM PT)
Play #4 Tizamagician to Win & Place.
Morning Line: 8/5
Yes, Lone Rock beat Tiz in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes, but that was like a road game with Tiz's poor start. Watch the replay. The track announcer at Belmont said "Tizamagician off slow to a stumbling beginning and is at the back of the pack". Had to press hard and managed to finish second. That's a legitimate excuse and now its payback time. Tiz loves Del Mar, first or second in 5 of 7 starts. Lone Rock has never run at Del Mar. Horses with experience running at Del Mar win a much higher rate than other tracks. Lone Rock has two declining speed figures after posting a career-best 115 Equibase speed figure in the Brooklyn.
In 35 starts, Lone Rock has earned $874,921 with an average earnings per start of $27,341. Tizamagician has earned $633,851 in 20 career starts. That equates to $31,692 per start. Tiz is a perfect 2-0 (wins) after finishing 5th in his career. Tiz finished 5th in the Grade 1 Awesome Again on October 21. Trainer Richard Mandella & jockey Flavien Prat win 40% together and finish 76% in the money. I'm hoping the public bets Lone Rock down to 3/5. Hopefully, Tiz's odds will creep up to 5/2. I love Tizamagician in this spot, as the 4-year old colt by Tiznow wants to run long and even longer. Take Tizamagician to the bank!
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