Week One 2014-15 NFL Handicapping Manifesto


by Jeff Hochman



Value is the Key

Not just for underdogs! There are many games in the NFL when taking a favorite is the more Valued play. You will hear many people say I only take favorites in the NFL and you will also hear many people say I only take Underdogs. In the NFL everyone has their preference, but if you only stick to one or the other you CAN'T and WON'T show a profit by seasons end. You have to think one step ahead of the odds-makers and treat sports handicapping as a business rather than a hobby.


5-Year plan

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week #1 are just 38-42-7 Against the spread. (47.5%). This record was even worse in the early 2000's but has since improved from 42% ATS in 2002. This of course implies that roadies on the blind are a 52.5% winning proposition during this time. Jo public has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week #1, when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.


The Total Picture

The odds-makers also know that Jo Public loves to bet overs and will inflate the line on purpose in Week one. The Week one totals are the highest combined Week 1 totals in the history of the NFL. NFL Week One games with an Over/Under of 46 or more points are 18-37 O/U since 2009. Maybe the hot weather has something to do with all the low week one scores. Interesting stuff, a 67% simple angle on Under the Total in week on all totals of 48 or more! Lots of value on Unders in Week 1.


Who Let the Dogs Out?

Favorites are just 34-46-9 ATS in Week #1 the past five NFL seasons. This means that underdogs bark at a 57.5% clip. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and -6 1/2 are only 9-17 ATS (31%) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –7 1/2 have stumbled to a 10-21 ATS (32.5%) in Week one games the past five seasons. WOW!


Playoff Teams from Last Season

It might surprise you (it did to me) to learn that playoff teams from the prior year vs. non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 15-28-4 (35%) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus non-playoff teams from the prior season drop to a meager 10-18-1 ATS (36%) during this time. The odds-makers will intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.


Don't get trapped in week One. Good Luck this football season.

Jeff Hochman