With the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday lets take a look at my top five contenders in random order. These are my ML odds. The official odds and PP's will be determined on Wed.

I have picked the winner in three straight Kentucky Derby's and 9 of 13 in Triple Crown Races. Most Horse experts thought Big Brown would flop as the favorite in the 20th PP. Not me! He ended up winning in a romp. One of these 5 horses will win. Make sure you sign up on Saturday for the big winner.

The betting favorite has won the Kentucky Derby just 4 times since 1979 but three since 2000. Most recently was Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (2004), before that it was Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), and than you have to go back all the way to Spectacular Bid in 1979. The favorite has Never won the Kentucky Derby two years in a row.

What is the Dosage and why it's important: Dosage is a mathematical analysis of the strengths in a thoroughbred pedigree based upon the location of certain outstanding sires in its family.

You may have heard that any horse whose DI is greater than 4.00 cannot win the Kentucky Derby. This figure was selected not by man, but by history because up until 1991, no horse with a higher DI had ever won the race. (Strike the Gold won with a DI of 9.0 only because Alydar was yet to be named to the Chef-de-Race list in the Classic category. After that designation, the DI for Strike the Gold fell to the more realistic figure of 2.6 which more accurately reflected his abilities and those of most offspring of Alydar.)

Real Quiet won in 1998 with a DI over the 4.0 limit, and subsequent Chef-de-Race additions have actually raised his DI even further. Such is the nature of statistics - it won't be accurate 100% of the time.

The 4.0 barrier is still a good historical yardstick for a classic distance race, but is bound to be broken again someday - only because horses don't race against distances, they race against other horses. Also, when looking at the best Beyer figure I like to see a Horse with at least one 100 or more on his resume.

I still find it very hard to back and Horse in the Kentucky Derby that has a dosage of 4.00 or higher. It has worked well for me in the past. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TBD I Want Revenge ML: 7/2 Dosage: 3.00

I Want Revenge is unbeaten since switching from a synthetic to a dirt track. Since being beaten at Santa Anita Park in February by Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem, I Want Revenge and regular rider Joe Talamo have combined for two straight victories at Aqueduct, romping in the Gotham Stakes in March and taking down the Wood Memorial in April despite a rough start. He has not been training well this week at CD and is no lock.

TBD Pioneerof the Nile ML: 6/1 Dosage: 3.00

Pioneerof the Nile has never raced on dirt, but that hasn't stopped him from looking superb in workouts at Churchill Downs this week. Undefeated this year, Pioneerof the Nile has made huge strides in his ability to focus from gate to wire - a quality that was lacking early on this season. The only question remaining is whether his form will translate from synthetic to dirt. Time will tell.

#TBD Friesan Fire ML: 9/1 Dosage: 3.00

Undeafted this year, Friesan Fire hasn't raced since his triumph on March 14 in the slop at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby but if the rain keeps falling at Churchill Downs, that experience on an off-track will be advantageous come Derby day. What may be a disadvantage is that Friesan Fire has not raced outside of Fair Grounds since December 2008 and could find the transition to Churchill Downs difficult. A well-rested horse but might come up rusty.

#TBD Chocolate Candy ML: 12/1 Dosage: 2.08

Who doesn't like Chocolate Candy! Very tasty. Last year he won the Real Quiet Stakes and was 3rd in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. Won the California Derby at Golden Gate for his 3-year-old debut and followed up with a win in the El Camino Real Derby. Went in the Santa Anita Derby for his final prep and finished a slow closing 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile by a length.

#TBD West Side Bernie ML: 14/1 Dosage: 1.80

Has the lowest dosage in the field. Even lower than last year's winner, Big Brown. Last year he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway, was 6th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, then 2nd in the Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. Rallied from last to finish 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park for his 3-year-old debut. Finished a disappointing 6th Lane's End Stakes at Turfway beaten 8 lengths by Hold Me Back. Came back to finish 2nd in the Wood Memorial 1 1/2 lengths behind I Want Revenge for his final prep.

Jeff H

Good Luck this Weekend!
 

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