NFC Sleeper team (ATS)

Green Bay Packers


Head Coach: Mike McCarthy returns for his 4th season in Green Bay and is making the switch to the 3-4 defense like most teams seem to be doing this decade. After last year's 6-10 performance his career record is now 22-28. Not good enough in Green Bay. Four of the 6 wins last season came in the division. If this team can stay focused when not playing rivals a playoff berth is very likely.

Offense: I love Aaron Rogers and he is only getting better. His 93.8 passer rating ranked 6th in the NFL last season. He threw for over 4,000 yards, 28 TD, with only 12 Ints. Aaron should be much better late in games this season. Last year he looked lost at times. Greg Jennings is a stud and he also is getting better. He had 80 receptions last year while averaging 16.2 yards per catch. Did I mention his 21 TD's over the last two seasons. Donald Driver is another dependable WR that has at least 74 receptions in each of the last five seasons. James Jones, who played hurt last year is a solid #3. Ryan Grant ran for 1,203 yards (3.9 avg.) with a banged-up hammy. Third-year pro Brandon Jackson plays on passing downs and is very capable of producing in the running game if needed.

Most of the growing pains should be over for the offensive line and this should be a strength this season. They all have played a full season together and the middle of the line is dynamite. Daryn Colledge at left guard is in his fouth year, Jason Spitz at Center is in his fourth year, and right-guard Josh Sitton in his is second year. Sitton has the size and skill that will land him in the Pro-Bowl in the very near future.

Defense: The stop unit gets a complete over-haul, and will now play a true 3-4 defense installed by Dom Capers who has 23 years experience. That's a good thing becuase the 3-4 defense is designed to confuse and frustrate opponents. Of the Top 10 defense last season seven of them played some sort of a 3-4 defense. Green Bay has the skill and speed type linebackers that makes the 3-4 defesne successful.

They drafted Clay Matthews at #26 overall and moved up 15 spots to do so. He will start at ROLB and should make the Pro-Bowl in the very near future. He certainly has the blood lines going for him. Aaron Kampman made the Pro-Bowl as a defensive end and will now try his luck at LOLB. He will be even better in this type of 3-4 defense becuase of the confusion it will casue. A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett played much of last season "nicked up" and it showed. If those guys stay healthy this could be a Top 10 defense. The 3-4 defense turns no-names into stars. Just ask 7th round draft pick Jay Ratliff of the Cowboys. He is now considered one of the best Centers in the game. The list goes on and one.

The Packers were ranked dead last against the pass last season. That number is a bit misleading due to the fact Green Bay was ranked #7 against the run. Teams knew they had no chance and would just pass and pass some more. They only allowed 85.7 rushing per game. Look for more balance this year with the switch to 3-4 defense. Cornerback Charles Woodsen looks like he could play forever at age 32. He had a solid season with 7 int's in 2008. Al Harris is another dependable CB, but at age 34 he could be on the decline. Look for Nickelback Tramon Williams to start in the near future. Had a great career at LA. Tech and the Packers love his ability with three years under his belt. Safty Nick Collins returns after another Pro-Bowl apperance last season.

Special Teams: There is a lot of room for improvement except in one area. The Packers were ranked #1 last season in covering kick-offs and punts. They gave up the fewest amount of yards in the entire league. Kicker Mason Crosby has a big leg but made only 27-34 FG's last year. He has a great attitude and should be better this year. The punting was awful last year and it's unclear weather Jeremy Kapinos or Durant Brooks will be with team when the season starts. Green Bay is looking for punters on the waiver wire. Will Blackmon returns both punts and kick-offs and does it better than most. He had 2 punt return TD's last season and averaged 21.0 yards on kick-offs.

Outlook: According to the NFL’s strength-of-schedule analysis, the Packers will face the third easiest schedule of all teams in 2009. The North is paired in games this season with the AFC North, a relatively weak division (Pittsburgh and Baltimore notwithstanding). Green Bay’s 2009 opponents had an overall .428 record in 2008. In the NFL teams can go from 1-15 to 10-6 so take this with a grain of salt. I like the Packers to win a lot of games at home and be very competitive on the road.

2009-10 straight-up record: 10-6

2009-10 against-the spread record: 10-6

Jeff's Top NFC Sleeper team selection:

*** Take Green Bay +6 in week #5 at. Minnesota.***

Next week: Opening Week Preview

Jeff H/JHSL