Indianapolis Colts (13-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)


ATS Records: Colts (9-4) vs. Jags (5-8)

Thursday, Dec 17 2009 at 8:20 PM

Current Line: Colts -3 Total: 41.5

The Colts will look to win their 23rd straight game overall, against division rival Jacksonville. The first game was close with the Colts winning 14-12 as 6-point favorites. If the Jags are going to upset the Colts they will need to pass for more than 114 yards, which is what they had in the first meeting. The Jags also rushed for 114 yards for a total of 228 yards on offense. That will not get it done. The Colts threw for 291 yards proving once again it's a passing league.

As little as five years ago teams that had more rushing yards would seemingly win 60-70% of the time. In today's NFL it's more like 50%. Turnovers will always be a "key" factor as teams with at least a +10 in takeaways all have winning records.

Since 2005, the team that had more passing yards has won the game straight-up 63% of the time. Keep in mind that number is impressive because most teams that are way behind must throw the rest of the game which pads the passing stats.

Better Offense

The Colts average 385 yards good for 27.6 points per game. The Jags average 341 yards good for 18.1 points per game.

Better Defense

The Colts allow 327 ypg good for 16.7 points against average. The Jags allow 346 ypg good for 22.1 points against average. How telling is that stat! You can see that the Colts have a bend but don't break philosophy. The Colts force the opposition into FG attempts nearly 75% of the time.

Better Special Teams

It's no shock the Colts have the #2 rated Special Teams in all of football while Jacksonville is ranked #19. A complex formula that calculates every aspect of special teams play. (kicking, punting, kick/punt returns/coverage, tackling, takeaways, giveaways, starting field position, and chemistry)

Any guess at which NFL squad is #1 this year in Special Teams play??????

Your right if you said Saints!

Intangibles

Jacksonville for sure. Consider this a playoff game for the Jaguars as three straight wins could mean a playoff birth. Even if Jax goes 2-1 down the stretch and finish 9-7. The Colts have said they don't care about going undefeated this season.

Side Selection

The Odds-makers have set the perfect Trap line here. I have a feeling the Colts long long winning streak comes to an end. Take the hungry Jags!

Top Trends

The Colts are 6-0 ATS on Thursday since 1992.

The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS when playing with same season revenge.


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